Market Intelligence · June 2026

E-Fuels Production Costs
What they cost. What changes them.

Estimated production costs for synthetic fuels — today, with green hydrogen, and what happens when natural geological hydrogen from Lorraine is confirmed at €0.50/kg.

Estimated costs · June 2026 · Updated quarterly

⛽ Estimated production costs — green H₂ at €6.20/kg

E-PETROL (e-gasoline)

PtL · Fischer-Tropsch · ICE compatible · EU 2035 exemption

€3.40 per litre · production cost ×2.1 vs fossil pump price

E-DIESEL

PtL · Fischer-Tropsch · heavy transport · drop-in

€3.20 per litre · production cost ×2.1 vs fossil diesel

E-KEROSENE (e-SAF)

PtL · ReFuelEU mandate · 1.2% by 2030 · 35% by 2050

€7.70 per litre · production cost ×8.9 vs fossil Jet A-1

E-METHANOL

Kassø · European Energy · Maersk · FuelEU Maritime

€920 per tonne · production cost ×3.2 vs fossil methanol

E-AMMONIA (green)

FuelEU Maritime · 2× credit · Yara Eyde · IMO framework

€800 per tonne · production cost ×2.8 vs fossil ammonia

🌍 Reference — fossil fuels · June 2026

PETROL (fossil)

EU average pump price excl. tax · June 2026

€1.65 per litre

JET A-1 (fossil)

EU average · June 2026

€0.87 per litre

EU ETS CARBON PRICE

EU Emissions Trading System · June 2026

~€65 per tonne CO₂ +€0.17/L fossil diesel equivalent

Production Cost Scenarios

How costs change depending on hydrogen feedstock price

Today · Green H₂ €6.20/kg

Current Costs

E-petrol€3.40/L

E-diesel€3.20/L

E-kerosene€7.70/L

E-methanol€920/t

E-ammonia€800/t

REGALOR II · Natural H₂ €0.50/kg

If Lorraine Confirmed 2027

E-petrol~€1.80/L

E-diesel~€1.60/L

E-kerosene~€3.00/L

E-methanol~€280/t

E-ammonia~€250/t

2035 · Scale + Carbon €150/t

Optimistic 2035

E-petrol~€1.40/L

E-diesel~€1.30/L

E-kerosene~€2.20/L

E-methanol~€200/t

E-ammonia~€180/t

⚠ All production cost figures are estimates based on publicly available data and modelled assumptions as of June 2026. They are not market prices or trading data. Natural hydrogen costs at €0.50/kg are targets — not confirmed commercial prices. Scenario costs for 2027 and 2035 are illustrative projections. Sources: BloombergNEF, INERATEC, IEA, European Energy, FDE/REGALOR II, EU ETS. Updated quarterly.

E-Fuels Production CostsWhat they cost. What changes them.

E-Fuels Production Costs
What they cost. What changes them.